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1.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1048, 2024 Apr 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38622601

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Diabetes prevalence has increased over the past few decades, and the shift of the burden of diabetes from the older population to the younger population has increased the exposure of longer durations in a morbid state. The study aimed at ascertaining the likelihood of progression to diabetes and to estimate the onset of diabetes within the urban community of Mumbai. METHODS: This study utilized an observational retrospective non-diabetic cohort comprising 1629 individuals enrolled in a health security scheme. Ten years of data were extracted from electronic medical records, and the life table approach was employed to assess the probability of advancing to diabetes and estimate the expected number of years lived without a diabetes diagnosis. RESULTS: The study revealed a 42% overall probability of diabetes progression, with age and gender variations. Males (44%) show higher probabilities than females (40%) of developing diabetes. Diabetes likelihood rises with age, peaking in males aged 55-59 and females aged 65-69. Males aged 30-34 exhibit a faster progression (10.6 years to diagnosis) compared to females (12.3 years). CONCLUSION: The study's outcomes have significant implications for the importance of early diabetes detection. Progression patterns suggest that younger cohorts exhibit a comparatively slower rate of progression compared to older cohorts.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus , Adulto , Masculino , Feminino , Humanos , Estudos Retrospectivos , Diabetes Mellitus/epidemiologia , Tábuas de Vida , Prevalência , Índia/epidemiologia , Fatores de Risco
2.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 1058, 2024 Apr 16.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38627658

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Mortality estimates at the subnational level are of urgent need in India for the formulation of policies and programmes at the district level. This is the first-ever study which used survey data for the estimation of life expectancy at birth ([Formula: see text]) for the 640 districts from NFHS-4 (2015-16) and 707 districts from NFHS-5 (2019-21) for the total, male and female population in India. METHODS: This study calculated annual age-specific mortality rates from NFHS-4 and NFHS-5 for India and all 36 states for the total, male and female population. This paper constructed the abridged life tables and estimated life expectancy at birth [Formula: see text] and further estimated the model parameters for all 36 states. This study linked state-specific parameters to the respective districts for the estimation of life expectancy at birth [Formula: see text]for 640 districts from NFHS-4 and 707 districts from NFHS-5 for the total, male and female population in India. RESULTS: Findings at the state level showed that there were similarities between the estimated and calculated [Formula: see text] in most of the states. The results of this article observed that the highest [Formula: see text] varies in the ranges of 70 to 90 years among the districts of the southern region. [Formula: see text] falls below 70 years among most of the central and eastern region districts. In the northern region districts [Formula: see text] lies in the range of 70 years to 75 years. The estimates of life expectancy at birth [Formula: see text] shows the noticeable variations at the state and district levels for the person, male, and female populations from the NFHS (2015-16) and NFHS (2019-21). In the absence of age-specific mortality data at the district level in India, this study used the indirect estimation method of relating state-specific model parameters with the IMR of their respective districts and estimated [Formula: see text] across the 640 districts from NFHS-4 (2015-16) and 707 districts from NFHS-5 (2019-21). The findings of this study have similarities with the state-level estimations of [Formula: see text] from both data sources of SRS and NFHS and found the highest [Formula: see text] in the southern region and the lowest [Formula: see text] in the eastern and central region districts. CONCLUSIONS: In the lack of [Formula: see text] estimates at the district level in India, this study could be beneficial in providing timely life expectancy estimates from the survey data. The findings clearly shows variations in the district level [Formula: see text]. The districts from the southern region show the highest [Formula: see text] and districts from the central and eastern region has lower [Formula: see text]. Females have higher [Formula: see text] as compared to the male population in most of the districts in India.


Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida , Homens , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Inquéritos e Questionários , Índia/epidemiologia , Tábuas de Vida
3.
Ecol Lett ; 27(3): e14417, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38549264

RESUMO

Life table response experiments (LTREs) decompose differences in population growth rate between environments into separate contributions from each underlying demographic rate. However, most LTRE analyses make the unrealistic assumption that the relationships between demographic rates and environmental drivers are linear and independent, which may result in diminished accuracy when these assumptions are violated. We extend regression LTREs to incorporate nonlinear (second-order) terms and compare the accuracy of both approaches for three previously published demographic datasets. We show that the second-order approach equals or outperforms the linear approach for all three case studies, even when all of the underlying vital rate functions are linear. Nonlinear vital rate responses to driver changes contributed most to population growth rate responses, but life history changes also made substantial contributions. Our results suggest that moving from linear to second-order LTRE analyses could improve our understanding of population responses to changing environments.


Assuntos
Crescimento Demográfico , Tábuas de Vida , Dinâmica Populacional
4.
PLoS One ; 19(3): e0299598, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38451951

RESUMO

Life tables are one of the most common tools to describe the biology of insect species and their response to environmental conditions. Although the benefits of life tables are beyond question, we raise some doubts about the completeness of the information reported in life tables. To substantiate these doubts, we consider a case study (Corcyra cephalonica) for which the raw dataset is available. The data suggest that the Gaussian approximation of the development times which is implied by the average and standard error usually reported in life tables does not describe reliably the actual distribution of the data which can be misleading and hide interesting biological aspects. Furthermore, it can be risky when life table data are used to build models to predict the demographic changes of the population. The present study highlights this aspect by comparing the impulse response generated by the raw data and by its Gaussian approximation based on the mean and the standard error. The conclusions of this paper highlight: i) the importance of adding more information to life tables and, ii) the role of raw data to ensure the completeness of this kind of studies. Given the importance of raw data, we also point out the need for further developments of a standard in the community for sharing and analysing data of life tables experiments.


Assuntos
Insetos , Lepidópteros , Animais , Tábuas de Vida , Insetos/fisiologia , Entomologia/métodos
5.
PLoS One ; 19(2): e0289682, 2024.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38306340

RESUMO

The Cheilomenes sexmaculata (Fabricius) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), is one of the most beneficial and identifiable predators of numerous soft-bodied and sucking insect pests of several crops. Biological parameters and olfactory response of C. sexmaculata were investigated under laboratory conditions by providing three different aphid species i.e., mustard aphid (Lipaphis erysimi Kaltenbach), citrus black aphid (Toxoptera citricida Kirkaldy), and peach aphid (Diuraphis noxia Kurdjumov) as a food source. The developmental period of immature stages of C. sexmaculata was shorter on D. noxia as compared to other aphid species. The adult longevities were longer on D. noxia and T. citricida while shorter on L. erysimi. Female fecundity was highest on D. noxia while lowest on L. erysimi. Life table parameters i.e., intrinsic rate of increase (r), finite rate of increase (λ), net reproductive rate (Ro), and gross reproductive rate (GRR) were maximum on D. noxia while minimum on L. erysimi. The mean generation time C. sexmaculata was 20.90, 23.69, and 26.2 days on D. noxia, L. erysimi, T. and citricida, respectively. These findings were further confirmed from the olfactory experiment where D. noxia proved to be the most preferred prey. This study provides necessary information for mass-rearing of C. sexmaculata.


Assuntos
Afídeos , Besouros , Feminino , Animais , Besouros/fisiologia , Afídeos/fisiologia , Tábuas de Vida , Quimiotaxia , Produtos Agrícolas
6.
BMC Public Health ; 24(1): 431, 2024 Feb 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38341549

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Korea's life expectancy at birth has consistently increased in the 21st century. This study compared the age and cause-specific contribution to the increase in life expectancy at birth in Korea before and after 2010. METHODS: The population and death numbers by year, sex, 5-year age group, and cause of death from 2000 to 2019 were acquired. Life expectancy at birth was calculated using an abridged life table by sex and year. The annual age-standardized and age-specific mortality by cause of death was also estimated. Lastly, the age and cause-specific contribution to the increase in life expectancy at birth in the two periods were compared using a stepwise replacement algorithm. RESULTS: Life expectancy at birth in Korea increased consistently from 2010 to 2019, though slightly slower than from 2000 to 2009. The cause-specific mortality and life expectancy decomposition analysis showed a significant decrease in mortality in chronic diseases, such as neoplasms and diseases of the circulatory system, in the middle and old-aged groups. External causes, such as transport injuries and suicide, mortality in younger age groups also increased life expectancy. However, mortality from diseases of the respiratory system increased in the very old age group during 2010-2019. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy at birth in Korea continued to increase mainly due to decreased mortality from chronic diseases and external causes during the study period. However, the aging of the population structure increased vulnerability to respiratory diseases. The factors behind the higher death rate from respiratory disease should be studied in the future.


Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida , Mortalidade , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Causas de Morte , Tábuas de Vida , Doença Crônica , República da Coreia/epidemiologia
7.
Bull Entomol Res ; 114(1): 134-148, 2024 Feb.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38178797

RESUMO

Aulacophora lewisii Baly (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) is an important pest of Luffa acutangula (L.) Roxb. (Cucurbitaceae) in India. Larvae of A. lewisii feed on the roots, while adults consume leaves of L. acutangula. In the current study, effects of three L. acutangula cultivars (Abhiskar, Debsundari, and Jaipur Long) on the life table parameters by age-stage, two-sex approach, and key digestive enzymatic activities (amylolytic, proteolytic, and lipolytic) of the larvae and adults of A. lewisii were determined. Further, nutrients (total carbohydrates, proteins, lipids, amino acids, and nitrogen content) and antinutrients (total phenols, flavonols, and tannins) present in the roots and leaves of three cultivars were estimated. The development time (egg to adult emergence) was fastest and slowest on Jaipur Long (31.80 days) and Abhiskar (40.91 days), respectively. Fecundity was highest and lowest on Jaipur Long (279.91 eggs) and Abhiskar (137.18 eggs), respectively. The intrinsic rate of increase (r) was lowest on Abhiskar (0.0511 day-1) and highest on Jaipur Long (0.0872 day-1). The net reproductive rate (R0) was lowest on Abhiskar (23.32 offspring female-1). The mean generation time (T) was shortest on Jaipur Long (52.59 days) and longest on Abhiskar (61.58 days). The amylolytic, proteolytic, and lipolytic activities of larvae and adults of A. lewisii were highest and lowest on Jaipur Long and Abhiskar, respectively. The lower level of nutrients and higher level of antinutrients influenced higher larval development time and lower fecundity of A. lewisii on Abhiskar than other cultivars. Our results suggest that Abhiskar cultivar could be promoted for cultivation.


Assuntos
Besouros , Cucurbitaceae , Luffa , Feminino , Animais , Besouros/fisiologia , Tábuas de Vida , Larva , Fenômenos Fisiológicos do Sistema Digestório
8.
Pharmacoeconomics ; 42(4): 463-473, 2024 Apr.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38267807

RESUMO

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) is rapidly increasing in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). T2D increases the risk of premature death and reduces quality of life and work productivity. This population life table modelling analysis evaluated the impact of T2D in terms of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs) on the South African working-age population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Life table modelling was employed to simulate the follow-up of individuals aged 20-65 with T2D in South Africa (SA). Two life table models were developed to simulate health outcomes for a SA cohort with and without diabetes. The difference in the number of deaths, years of life lost (YLL), and PALYs lost between the two cohorts represented the burden of diabetes. Scenarios were simulated in which the proportions of gross domestic productivity (GDP), productivity indices, labour force dropout, and mortality risk trends were adjusted to lower and upper uncertainty bounds. Data were sourced from the International Diabetes Federation, Statistics SA, and both publicly available and published sources. We utilised the World Health Organization (WHO) standard annual discount rate of 3% for YLL and PALYs. RESULTS: In 2019, an estimated 9.5% (7.68% men and 11.37% women) or 3.2 million total working-age people had T2D in SA. Simulated follow-up until retirement predicted 669,427 excess mortality, a loss of 6.2 million years of life (9.3%) and 13 million PALYs (30.6%) in SA. On average, this resulted in 3.1 PALYs lost per person. Based on the GDP per full-time employee in 2019, the PALYs loss equated to US$223 billion, or US$69,875 per person. CONCLUSIONS: This study emphasises the significant impact of T2D on society and the economy. Relatively modest T2D prevention and treatment management enhancement could lead to substantial economic benefits in SA.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Qualidade de Vida , Masculino , Humanos , Feminino , Tábuas de Vida , África do Sul , Efeitos Psicossociais da Doença , Eficiência
9.
Infect Control Hosp Epidemiol ; 45(5): 681-683, 2024 May.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38268338

RESUMO

Using a life tables approach with 2011-2017 claims data, we calculated lifetime risks of Clostridioides difficile infection (CDI) beginning at age 18 years. The lifetime CDI risk rates were 32% in female patients insured by Medicaid, 10% in commercially insured male patients, and almost 40% in females with end-stage renal disease.


Assuntos
Infecções por Clostridium , Longevidade , Estados Unidos , Humanos , Feminino , Masculino , Adolescente , Tábuas de Vida
10.
Pest Manag Sci ; 80(3): 1533-1546, 2024 Mar.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37964702

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Spodoptera frugiperda, a global agricultural pest, can be effectively controlled through the sterile insect technique. However, exposure to low-dose radiation below the sterilization threshold may induce hormetic effects. Here, the biphasic aspects of the fertile progeny population of S. frugiperda were analyzed using an age-stage, two-sex life table after dosing male and female pupae with 10-350 Gy gamma radiation. RESULTS: The parental sterilizing dose for 6-day-old female and male pupae was 200 and 350 Gy, respectively. The total longevity, pre-adult survival rate, net reproduction rate, and intrinsic growth rate of the offspring population increased with decreasing radiation doses from 250 to 10 Gy. Offspring population of parents treated with low doses of 10-100 Gy showed better life table parameters compared to non-irradiated controls. Females and males fecundity irradiated with 10, 50, and 100 Gy and 10 Gy, respectively, exceeded controls, producing 2339.4, 2726.4, 2311, and 2369 eggs, as opposed to 1802.9 eggs produced by the controls. Males irradiated with 10 Gy displayed the highest intrinsic rates of increase and net reproduction rate, at 0.1709 and 682.3, respectively. Projections from the survival rate and fecundity indicated that female and male S. frugiperda populations after 10 Gy irradiation may grow considerably faster than the controls. CONCLUSION: This study explores the hormetic effects of low-dose radiation on S. frugiperda through life table analysis, while providing enhancements for utilizing substerilizing gamma dose in a modified F1 sterility technique. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.


Assuntos
Infertilidade , Mariposas , Animais , Masculino , Feminino , Spodoptera , Tábuas de Vida , Fertilidade
11.
Theor Popul Biol ; 155: 1-9, 2024 02.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38000513

RESUMO

By quantifying key life history parameters in populations, such as growth rate, longevity, and generation time, researchers and administrators can obtain valuable insights into its dynamics. Although point estimates of demographic parameters have been available since the inception of demography as a scientific discipline, the construction of confidence intervals has typically relied on approximations through series expansions or computationally intensive techniques. This study introduces the first mathematical expression for calculating confidence intervals for the aforementioned life history traits when individuals are unidentifiable and data are presented as a life table. The key finding is the accurate estimation of the confidence interval for r, the instantaneous growth rate, which is tested using Monte Carlo simulations with four arbitrary discrete distributions. In comparison to the bootstrap method, the proposed interval construction method proves more efficient, particularly for experiments with a total offspring size below 400. We discuss handling cases where data are organized in extended life tables or as a matrix of vital rates. We have developed and provided accompanying code to facilitate these computations.


Assuntos
Longevidade , Crescimento Demográfico , Humanos , Intervalos de Confiança , Dinâmica Populacional , Tábuas de Vida
12.
J Econ Entomol ; 117(1): 230-239, 2024 Feb 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38011802

RESUMO

Ectropis grisescens Warren is one of the most important pests of tea plants. In this study, data on the development, survival, and fecundity of E. grisescens were collected at 15, 22, and 32 °C and analyzed by using the age-stage, two-sex life table. At 15 °C, the duration of the preadult period of E. grisescens was significantly prolonged (81.06 days), with high mortality (69.0%), and the proportion of emerged female adults was extremely low (7.0%). At 32 °C, the preadult period was significantly shortened (29.12 days), with high preadult mortality (74.0%), and a low proportion of emerged female adults (15.0%). At 22 °C, with low preadult mortality (24.0%), and a high proportion of emerged female adults (26.0%). The overall effects of the shorter preadult duration, higher preadult survival rate, higher proportion of emerged female adults, higher fecundity (F = 350.88 eggs/♀), and higher net reproductive rate (R0 = 91.23 offspring/individual) at 22 °C resulted in the highest values of the intrinsic rate of increase (r = 0.1054 days-1) and finite rate of increase (λ = 1.1112 days-1). Computer simulation showed that E. grisescens populations can increase much faster at 22 °C than at 15 and 32 °C. The weighted population size and cumulative weighted insect-days provided the dynamics necessary for estimating the damage potential of E. grisescens in devising economical pest management programs. Our results demonstrate that populations of E. grisescens were able to develop at a broad range of temperatures and adapt to the high temperatures. These finding can be utilized to improve the management of E. grisescens.


Assuntos
Camellia sinensis , Mariposas , Animais , Simulação por Computador , Reprodução , Tábuas de Vida
13.
J Econ Entomol ; 117(1): 136-144, 2024 Feb 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38156671

RESUMO

Penthaleus major (Dugés) is a significant agricultural pest that attacks various pasture, vegetable, and crop plants. Temperature plays a critical role in the life history of P. major. However, there is limited understanding of its life table at different temperatures and cold tolerance. This study aimed to elucidate the performance of P. major by constructing life tables at 6, 9, 12, 15, 18, 21, and 24 °C. The results showed that P. major successfully developed at 9‒21 °C. However, no adults emerged at 6°C, and no eggs hatched at 24 °C. The highest intrinsic rate of increase (r), finite rate of increase (λ), net reproductive rate (R0), and gross reproductive rate (GRR) were observed at 12 °C. The supercooling point (SCP) exhibited significant variations at different developmental stages. The highest SCP (‒9.75 °C) was recorded in 10-day-old female adults, while the lowest SCP (‒24.37 °C) was observed in larvae. For female adult mites of 2, 6, and 10 days old, the low lethal temperatures (LLT50) were ‒14.63, ‒12.03, and ‒11.08 °C, respectively. This study provided valuable insights for modeling and predicting the population dynamics of P. major in the field and offered implications for developing successful management strategies.


Assuntos
Temperatura Baixa , Ácaros , Animais , Tábuas de Vida , Temperatura , Reprodução
14.
Natl Vital Stat Rep ; 72(12): 1-64, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38048433

RESUMO

Objectives-This report presents complete period life tables for the United States by Hispanic origin and race and sex, based on age-specific death rates in 2021. Methods-Data used to prepare the 2021 life tables are 2021 final mortality statistics; July 1, 2021, population estimates based on the Blended Base population estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau; and 2021 Medicare data for people ages 66-99. The methodology used to estimate life tables for the Hispanic population remains unchanged from that developed for the publication of life tables by Hispanic origin for data year 2006. The same methodology is used to estimate life tables for the American Indian and Alaska Native non-Hispanic and Asian non-Hispanic populations. The methodology used to estimate the 2021 life tables for all other groups was first implemented with data year 2008. Results-In 2021, the overall expectation of life at birth was 76.4 years, decreasing 0.6 year from 77.0 in 2020. From 2020 to 2021, life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.7 year for males (from 74.2 to 73.5) and by 0.6 year for females (79.9 to 79.3). Between 2020 and 2021, life expectancy decreased by 1.5 years for the American Indian and Alaska Native non-Hispanic population (67.1 to 65.6), 0.7 year for the White non-Hispanic population (77.4 to 76.7), 0.3 year for the Black non-Hispanic population (71.5 to 71.2), 0.1 year for the Hispanic population (77.9 to 77.8), and 0.1 year for the Asian non-Hispanic population (83.6 to 83.5).


Assuntos
Tábuas de Vida , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Hispânico ou Latino , Expectativa de Vida/etnologia , Medicare/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais
15.
J UOEH ; 45(4): 217-220, 2023.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38057110

RESUMO

In this technical note, we primarily demonstrate the computation of confidence limits for a novel measure of average lifespan shortened (ALSS). We identified women who had died from cervical and ovarian cancer between 2000 and 2020 from the Alberta cancer registry. Years of life lost (YLL) was calculated using the national life tables of Canada. We estimated the ALSS as a ratio of YLL in relation to the expected lifespan. We computed the confidence limits of the measure using various approaches, including the normal distribution, gamma distribution, and bootstrap method. The new ALSS measure shows a modest gain in lifespan of women, particularly women with ovarian cancer, over the study period.


Assuntos
Longevidade , Neoplasias Ovarianas , Humanos , Feminino , Expectativa de Vida , Alberta , Tábuas de Vida
16.
Demography ; 60(6): 1675-1688, 2023 Dec 01.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37975571

RESUMO

Multistate modeling is a commonly used method to compute healthy life expectancy. However, there is currently no analytical method to decompose the components of differentials in summary measures calculated from multistate models. In this research note, we propose a derivative-based method to decompose the differentials in population-based health expectancies estimated via a multistate model into two main components: the proportion resulting from differences in initial health structure and the proportion resulting from differences in health transitions. We illustrate the method using data on activities of daily living from the U.S. Health and Retirement Study to decompose the sex differential in disability-free life expectancy (HLE) among older Americans. Our results suggest that the sex gap in HLE results primarily from differences in transition rates between disability states rather than from the initial health distribution of female and male populations. The methods introduced here will enable researchers, including those working in fields other than health, to decompose the relative contribution of initial population structure and transition probabilities to differences in state-specific life expectancies from multistate models.


Assuntos
Atividades Cotidianas , Pessoas com Deficiência , Humanos , Masculino , Feminino , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Idoso , Tábuas de Vida , Expectativa de Vida , Homens
17.
J Econ Entomol ; 116(6): 2043-2051, 2023 12 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37793039

RESUMO

The thrips Megalurothrips usitatus Bagnall and Frankliniella intonsa Trybom (Thysanoptera: Thripidae) are important pests in cowpea-growing areas of south China. Parthenogenesis is an important reproductive form of thysanopterans, and plays an important role in maintaining population growth. To understand the developmental and reproductive characteristics of these 2 thrips species during parthenogenesis, we compared the age-stage life tables of M. usitatus and F. intonsa on cowpea pods under natural regimes during the summer and winter. The results showed that the total preadult period and total preoviposition period of M. usitatus were significantly longer than those of F. intonsa in both seasons. Moreover, longevity of adult M. usitatus (29.53 days) was shorter compared with adult F. intonsa (34.00 days) in summer, whereas higher fecundity (220.8 eggs/female) and more oviposition days (37.83 days) were observed in M. usitatus compared with F. intonsa in winter (fecundity = 179.83 eggs/female, oviposition days = 33.03 days). The net and gross reproductive rates of M. usitatus were significantly greater than those of F. intonsa during winter. In addition, the intrinsic and finite rates of increase of M. usitatus were significantly lower than those of F. intonsa, and the mean generation time of M. usitatus was significantly longer than that of F. intonsa both in summer and winter. These results indicated that parthenogenesis has species specificity among thrips, which in turn affects population development, especially under changing environments.


Assuntos
Tisanópteros , Vigna , Feminino , Animais , Tábuas de Vida , Crescimento Demográfico , Partenogênese , Ecologia
18.
Popul Health Metr ; 21(1): 13, 2023 09 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37700289

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Life expectancy is a simple measure of assessing health differences between two or more populations but current life expectancy calculations are not reliable for small populations. A potential solution to this is to borrow strength from larger populations from the same source, but this has not formally been investigated. METHODS: Using data on 451,222 individuals from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink on the presence/absence of intellectual disability and type 2 diabetes mellitus, we compared stratified and combined flexible parametric models, and Chiang's methods, for calculating life expectancy. Confidence intervals were calculated using the Delta method, Chiang's adjusted life table approach and bootstrapping. RESULTS: The flexible parametric models allowed calculation of life expectancy by exact age and beyond traditional life expectancy age thresholds. The combined model that fit age interaction effects as a spline term provided less bias and greater statistical precision for small covariate subgroups by borrowing strength from the larger subgroups. However, careful consideration of the distribution of events in the smallest group was needed. CONCLUSIONS: Life expectancy is a simple measure to compare health differences between populations. The use of combined flexible parametric methods to calculate life expectancy in small samples has shown promising results by allowing life expectancy to be modelled by exact age, greater statistical precision, less bias and prediction of different covariate patterns without stratification. We recommend further investigation of their application for both policymakers and researchers.


Assuntos
Diabetes Mellitus Tipo 2 , Humanos , Expectativa de Vida , Tábuas de Vida
19.
Lifetime Data Anal ; 29(4): 699-708, 2023 10.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37713017

RESUMO

I present some personal memories and thoughts on Cox's 1972 paper "Regression Models and Life-Tables".


Assuntos
Tábuas de Vida , Análise de Regressão , Humanos
20.
Popul Health Metr ; 21(1): 14, 2023 09 13.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37704992

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Cancer control initiatives are informed by quantifying the capacity to reduce cancer burden through effective interventions. Burden measures using health administrative data are a sustainable way to support monitoring and evaluating of outcomes among patients and populations. The Fraction of Life Years Lost After Diagnosis (FLYLAD) is one such burden measure. We use data on Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal South Australians from 1990 to 2010 to show how FLYLAD quantifies disparities in cancer burden: between populations; between sub-population cohorts where stage at diagnosis is available; and when follow-up is constrained to 24-months after diagnosis. METHOD: FLYLADcancer is the fraction of years of life expectancy lost due to cancer (YLLcancer) to life expectancy years at risk at time of cancer diagnosis (LYAR) for each person. The Global Burden of Disease standard life table provides referent life expectancies. FLYLADcancer was estimated for the population of cancer cases diagnosed in South Australia from 1990 to 2010. Cancer stage at diagnosis was also available for cancers diagnosed in Aboriginal people and a cohort of non-Aboriginal people matched by sex, year of birth, primary cancer site and year of diagnosis. RESULTS: Cancers diagnoses (N = 144,891) included 777 among Aboriginal people. Cancer burden described by FLYLADcancer was higher among Aboriginal than non-Aboriginal (0.55, 95% CIs 0.52-0.59 versus 0.39, 95% CIs 0.39-0.40). Diagnoses at younger ages among Aboriginal people, 7 year higher LYAR (31.0, 95% CIs 30.0-32.0 versus 24.1, 95% CIs 24.1-24.2) and higher premature cancer mortality (YLLcancer = 16.3, 95% CIs 15.1-17.5 versus YLLcancer = 8.2, 95% CIs 8.2-8.3) influenced this. Disparities in cancer burden between the matched Aboriginal and non-Aboriginal cohorts manifested 24-months after diagnosis with FLYLADcancer 0.44, 95% CIs 0.40-0.47 and 0.28, 95% CIs 0.25-0.31 respectively. CONCLUSION: FLYLAD described disproportionately higher cancer burden among Aboriginal people in comparisons involving: all people diagnosed with cancer; the matched cohorts; and, within groups diagnosed with same staged disease. The extent of disparities were evident 24-months after diagnosis. This is evidence of Aboriginal peoples' substantial capacity to benefit from cancer control initiatives, particularly those leading to earlier detection and treatment of cancers. FLYLAD's use of readily available, person-level administrative records can help evaluate health care initiatives addressing this need.


Assuntos
Instalações de Saúde , Neoplasias , Humanos , Austrália/epidemiologia , Expectativa de Vida , Tábuas de Vida , Mortalidade Prematura , Neoplasias/diagnóstico , Proteínas de Ligação a DNA , Proteínas Nucleares
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